The sure-fire picks have hit rock bottom, going 1-6-1 last week. The season record is barely above water at 49-46-1. The solution is simple – it’s time to start picking winners. 

Like Jay Cutler, the sure-fire picks have been so bad it would drive anyone to drink.

St. Louis at Chicago (-9), 1 p.m. Sunday 

The situation in Chicago is terrible. Jay Cutler has been a disaster and it appears Lovie Smith is on the way out. If they can’t muster a convincing win at home against the Rams, then things are even worse than I thought. Bears -9. 

Philadelphia (-5.5) at Atlanta, 1 p.m. Sunday 

It took a miracle for the Falcons to beat the lowly Buccaneers at home last week. Without Matt Ryan and possibly Michael Turner, they don’t stand a chance this Sunday. Eagles -5.5.

New England (-3.5) at Miami, 1 p.m.

Coming off an embarrassing loss to the Saints, I have no doubt the Patriots will come out ready to play. With a win the Patriots will take back control of the division. I see no way they slip up here. Patriots -3.5. 

Houston at Jacksonville (EVEN), 1 p.m. 

The Jaguars are the most unpredictable team in the NFL and their 6-5 record is deceiving – they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record yet. The Texans will keep their playoff hopes alive with a big win at Jacksonville. Texans EVEN.  

New Orleans (-9.5) at Washington, 1 p.m. Sunday 

You know what they say about things that are too good to be true. While the Redskins are playing better, this is a complete mismatch and there’s no reason to think the Saints won’t win this one running away … meaning the Redskins will probably shock the world. I’m still going with New Orleans here. Saints -9.5. 

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-5), 1 p.m. 

I’m not sure who new Carolina starter Matt Moore is, but I know he’s got to be better than injured Jake Delhomme who has thrown eight TDs to 18 INTs this season. Besides, if the Panthers are smart they’ll only throw about a dozen times in this one … they ran for 267 yards in a 28-21 win over the Bucs earlier this season. Panthers -5. 

San Diego (-13.5) at Cleveland, 4:05 p.m. 

Quietly, the Chargers are peaking and the Browns are … well, the Browns. Aside from their offensive explosion against the Lions, the Browns rarely score in double digits. They’ll lose big here. Chargers -13.5. 

Dallas (-2) at NY Giants, 4:15 p.m. Sunday 

After a 5-0 start things have crumbled for the Giants, who need a win to stay in the playoff hunt. The Cowboys are due to lay an egg and doing it on a big stage would be typical. Giants +2.