Colts must seize opportunity

Prior to the NFL season, nobody on Earth would’ve predicted the Tennessee Titans’ season would be blown to smithereens in Week 5.

The Colts will face a desperate and dangerous Jeff Fisher led Titans' team Sunday night.

A loss to the Colts Sunday night and that’s exactly what will happen to the 0-4 Titans.

An 0-5 team has never made the playoffs, and the Titans won’t be the first.

However, burying the Titans is easier said than done.

The Colts have lost two of their last three in Nashville and face a desperate Titans’ team.

And despite their 0-4 record the Titans lost their first three contests by a combined 13 points – all at the hands of potential playoff teams in the Steelers, Texans, and Jets.

While the season has been a disaster for the Titans, they still hold the Colts’ kryptonite – a top-notch running game.

The Titans rank seventh in rushing and can beat you with Chris Johnson’s speed or LenDale White’s power.

Tennessee head coach Jeff Fisher isn’t going down without a fight and will pull out all the stops Sunday. Expect a Vince Young sighting, a gutsy fourth-down call, and a surprise in the kicking game – whether it be an onside kick, a fake, or a reverse on a return.

But will homefield advantage, a lethal running game, and some Fisher shenanigans be enough for the Titans?

Maybe not.

The Titans’ defense – which ranked seventh in the league last year – has been ripped to shreds this season. Injuries and the absence of Albert Haynesworth have contributed, but there’s no explanation for this unit’s total collapse.

Tennessee ’s defense ranks 22nd overall dead least against the pass, allowing 282 yards per game and 10 touchdowns so far.

That’s bad news when Peyton Manning is in town.

Manning is off to arguably the best start of his career. He currently leads the league in passing yards (1,336), passer rating (114.5), touchdowns (9), and is completing 70.8 percent of his passes.

Last week David Garrard carved the Titans defense for 323 yards and two touchdowns – makes you think what Manning might be able to do.

With a win, the Colts will deliver the knockout punch to the defending division champs. That opportunity doesn’t come around too often … especially in early October.

Sure-fire picks – Week 4

The sure-fire picks went 5-3 last week, not too shabby. The season total is now 15-9. I’m not sure how I feel about this week’s set of picks, but here goes nothing.

The Bucs will give the Redskins all they can handle tomorrow ... if it ends in a Washington loss, the Jim Zorn Era is over.

Tampa Bay at Washington (-7.5), 1 p.m. Sunday 

The Redskins are fighting for Jim Zorn’s job. The question is, do they care? I’m not sure, but I know they are bad enough to let the Bucs hang around. Bucs +7.5.

Seattle at Indianapolis (-10.5), 1 p.m. Sunday

Unlike the Cardinals last week, the Seahawks will be smart enough not to play right into the Colts hands. They will run the ball early and often and keep backup quarterback Seneca Wallace out of trouble. The Colts defense is banged up, and the Seahawks will make things interesting. Seahawks +10.5.

Cincinnati at Cleveland (+6), 1 p.m. Sunday

Alright, I’m going to try a little reverse psychology. Who in their right mind would take Cleveland here right? They are the worst team in the universe. Count me in. Browns +6.

Tennessee (-3) at Jacksonville, 1 p.m. Sunday

There’s no way Jeff Fisher’s Titans drop to 0-4, there’s just no way. Facing the Jaguars is exactly what the Titans’ defense needs to get back on track and into the win column. Titans -3.

NY Giants (-9.5) at Kansas City, 1 p.m. Sunday

The Giants head to Arrowhead Stadium for their third consecutive road game. Look for a sluggish start from the Giants and a spirited fight from the Chiefs. Chiefs +9.5.

NY Jets at New Orleans (-7), 4:05 p.m. Sunday

The Bills hung with the Saints for three quarters last week and kept Drew Brees in check. I see no reason the Jets can’t do the same. A conservative gameplan by the Jets on offense will minimize the Saints’ possessions and keep the game close. Jets +7.

Dallas (-3) at Denver , 4:15 p.m. Sunday

Yep, I’m on the “ Denver isn’t that good” bandwagon. You have to give Josh McDaniels credit for a 3-0 start to silence the critics, but the Broncos are in for a reality check starting Sunday. Dallas -3.

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-6.5), 8:20 p.m. Sunday

Like the Colts without Bob Sanders, the Steelers’ defense just isn’t the same without Troy Polamalu. The Chargers are too good to let this game get out of hand and have revenge on their minds after last season’s playoff loss at Heinz Field. Chargers +6.5.

Colts receiving corps rising to the challenge

The Colts entered the 2009 season with big questions about their wide receiving corps.

Pierre Garcon - the pride of D3's Mount Union - has been a huge part of the Colts success early in '09.

Anthony Gonzalez had shown some potential, but was he a true No. 2 receiver?

What about the No. 3 spot – could rookie Austin Collie or second-year unknown Pierre Garcon make an impact?

Minutes into the season, more questions arose when Gonzalez collapsed with a knee injury that will likely keep him out until at least Week 7.

Some speculated the Colts would bring back Marvin Harrison or seek a trade for a quality receiver.

But the Colts played with the hand they were dealt and so far the results have been impressive.

Despite facing plenty of double coverage Reggie Wayne has been very productive, leading the NFL in receiving yards. His acrobatic touchdown catch to reel in an overthrown Peyton Manning pass against the Cardinals in Week 3 gave the Colts a 7-3 lead they didn’t relinquish.

Wayne’s early-season performance isn’t a huge surprise, but Garcon’s is.

The Division III product with the name everyone loves made his big splash late against the Dolphins.

Garcon turned a simple wide receiver screen into pure magic.

He scooped up Peyton Manning’s throw, weaved through the Dolphins’ defense, and sped to the endzone. The touchdown gave the Colts the go-ahead score in a game they had no business winning.

Against the Cardinals, Garcon proved it wasn’t a fluke. He finished the game with three catches for 64 yards and a touchdown, and ran a reverse for another 17 yards, burying an Arizona defender in the process – a display of physicality rarely seen from Colts receivers.

Collie has been quietly effective for the Colts thus far, hauling in six catches for 66 yards – five of them for first downs.

The contributions of Dallas Clark can’t be overlooked.

While he’s formally listed as a tight end Clark is anything but, running pass routes virtually every time he’s on the field. He leads all tight ends with 284 receiving yards.

It seems the biggest question now is where Gonzalez will fit back into a passing offense that ranks second in the NFL (327.7 ypg) when he returns.

Also, will recently acquired wide receiver Hank Baskett – who would provide Manning with a big target at 6-4, 200 – find his way into the mix? He hasn’t played a down on offense in his first two games with the team.

One thing is certain, the Colts’ air attack won’t slow down anytime soon as three of their next four opponents rank 24th or worse in pass defense.

Time for UCF to dump O’Leary

It’s time for the University of Central Florida (UCF) to pull the plug on head coach George O’Leary.

This will likely mark the third season in four years O'Leary has led UCF to a losing record. Not good enough.

UCF is the fifth-largest university in the nation, has top-notch practice facilities, a brand-new stadium, and a prime location for recruiting.

Yet, for the second consectuive season – they can’t compete in Conference USA (CUSA). That’s inexusable.

A two-hour drive away, Jim Leavitt has made the University of South Florida (USF) matter … without any of the resources available to O’Leary.

In 2007, USF was in the national championship discussion … if only for a minute. On Saturday, USF beat FSU by double-digits in Tallahassee.

The O’Leary Era hasn’t been all bad. He led UCF to bowls in 2004 and 2007 and its first CUSA championship in 2007.

But 2008 was a disaster, as the Knights went 4-8 and placed fifth in CUSA (3-5).

Things aren’t looking any better in 2009. The Knights are 2-2, with both losses coming in conference play.

O’Leary’s recruiting classes aren’t improving. He has a reputation for overworking players, and the death of Ereck Plancher in conditioning drills prior to the 2008 season certainly hasn’t helped matters.

The 2009 campaign will likely mark the third time in four seasons that UCF has a losing season. That’s not good enough. Not in this conference, with these facilities, on these recruiting grounds.

It’s time for fresh blood in Orlando. It’s time to can George O’Leary.

Editors note: Should O’Leary lead UCF to an improbable victory over Miami and/or Texas, please disregard this blog post. Thank you.

Sure-fire picks – Week 3

Cheer up Lions fans, this is the week you get off the scneid.

Alright, so I got a little cocky after a lucky Week 1. The sure-fire picks came back to Earth in Week 2, going 3-5 to bring the season total to 10-6.

Now it’s time to get back on the winning track.

Washington (-6.5) at Detroit, 1 p.m. Sunday

Call me crazy, but I think this is the week. Not only do the Lions cover, they also get that long-awaited win. Flush another overpaid Redskins team down the toilet. Lions +6.5

NY Giants (-7) at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m. Sunday

The Giants have yet to establish their running game this season. What better time to do it as they travel to face the Bucs — a defense opposing offenses used to fear, but now just laugh at. Giants -7.

Cleveland at Baltimore (-13.5), 1 p.m. Sunday

Among the lessons we’ve learned after two weeks is this – the Browns are atrocious. They didn’t even belong on the same field as the Broncos. What does that mean for their trip to Baltimore? Ouch. Ravens -13.5.

Jacksonville at Houston (-3.5), 1 p.m. Sunday

The Jack Del Rio Era is going down in a burst of flames. Seems this team just keeps getting worse … and after a 5-11 season, that’s a very bad thing. Texans -3.5.

San Francisco at Minnesota (-7), 1 p.m. Sunday

So it turns out I was wrong – the 49ers don’t suck. And the Vikings definitely haven’t shown me anything to warrant laying seven here. Favre finally faces a real defense. 49ers +7.

Chicago (-2) at Seattle, 4:05 p.m. Sunday

Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has broken ribs and his backup Seneca Wallace isn’t good. That’s good news for the Bears. On a side-note, the Seahawks need to get Edgerrin James more carries so he can continue his climb up the all-time rushing leader chart. Bears -2.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) at Cincinnati, 4:15 p.m. Sunday

Sorry Bengals, nice win against the Packers but I’m still not a believer. The Steelers (when healthy) are still the best team in the AFC and will get back on track here after a tough loss in Chicago. Steelers -3.5.

Carolina at Dallas (-9), 8:30 p.m. Monday

Staring down an 0-3 start, the Panthers will give the Cowboys all they can handle. And besides, how awesome would it be to see the Boys lose their first two in Jerry Jones’ new palace? Panthers +9.

Same problems resurface for Colts

At the midway point of last season, I wrote about the 2008 version of the Indianapolis Colts.

If not for Miami coach Tony Sparano's blunders, the Colts would've left with a loss Monday.

It was a version that had to fight to the wire for virtually every win, no matter who the opponent … a version with glaring deficiencies, but the ability to overcome them for victories.

It is still early, but it’s probably safe to say the 2009 version of the Colts hasn’t changed much from last season.

The glaring deficiencies are still there.

Despite drafting two defensive tackles and bringing back Ed Johnson, the Colts’ run defense is still terrible – currently ranked No. 30.

They drafted running back Donald Brown and got the offensive line healthy, but still can’t run for squat – the rushing offense is currently ranked No. 29.

The bottom line is the Colts are 2-0. But in reality, both games were dangerously close to losses.

Miami Dolphins’ coach Tony Sparano gave the Colts their second victory on a silver platter.

First, he settled for a field goal to take a three-point lead with 3:55 remaining in the game. Guess he didn’t get the scouting report on Peyton Manning.

Then, the Dolphins graced the NFL with a seminar on how not to run the two-minute drill. In a span of 1:13 Miami managed to burn a timeout and let the two-minute warning expire, while running just two plays for a total of six yards.

By the time the Dolphins did march down the field, it was too late. All they could do is watch Chad Pennington heave a futile attempt at a Hail Mary – Jeff Garcia thought there wasn’t enough air under that one – that was picked off in the endzone.

In Week 1 the Jaguars had their chance to knock off the Colts, but ultimately an awful decision on a two-point conversion attempt by Maurice Jones-Drew did them in.

Apparently many “experts” are looking right past the Colts’ shortcomings. ESPN’s power rankings have them at No. 3, while CBS Sports puts them at No. 2 – both are a big stretch.

The Colts have plenty of time to solve their ongoing problems running the ball and stopping the run. The one season they did, they accomplished the ultimate goal.

All the other times they didn’t … well, we all know how that story ends.

Sure-fire picks – Week 2

The sure-fire picks were nearly flawless last week, going 7-1.

Will the sure-fire picks continue to make our loyal readers in Vegas happy? We have readers right?

Now it’s time to prove that it’s not a fluke, and take another step toward my dream job as a Vegas oddsmaker.

Oakland at Kansas City (-3), 1 p.m. Sunday

The Chiefs might have to go with Brody Croyle again this week. Enough said. The Raiders blew a late lead against the Chargers, but looked like a decent football team. I’m staying on the Raiders’ bandwagon, I think they pull the ‘upset’ here. Raiders +3.

New England (-3.5) at NY Jets, 1 p.m. Sunday

The Jets are talking plenty of trash heading into Sunday’s showdown with the Patriots. We’ve seen this before. It doesn’t work. Tom Brady will calmly dissect the Jets’ D when it counts and cover the spread. Patriots -3.5.

New Orleans (-1) at Philadelphia , 1 p.m. Sunday

Kevin Kolb will likely start for Donovan McNabb on Sunday. Not good. The Saints will jump out to a quick lead, and Kolb will wilt under the pressure. Saints -1.

Cincinnati at Green Bay (-9), 1 p.m. Sunday

The Bengals are quietly becoming one of the most pathetic franchises in all of sports. Poor Marvin Lewis just can’t get fired. The Bengals get crushed in Lambeau tomorrow. Packers -9. 

St. Louis at Washington (-10), 1 p.m. Sunday

How bad is St. Louis? They didn’t score against the Seahawks last week. The Seahawks. It’s not going to get much better on the road against an angry Redskins team. Redskins -10.

Seattle at San Francisco (-1), 4:05 p.m. Sunday

I have no good reason to believe the Seahawks will win this game. Mainly I’m just being stubborn and sticking to my preseason prediction that the 49ers will suck. I might have missed on that one. Seahawks +1.

Cleveland at Denver (-3), 4:15 p.m. Sunday

Should the Broncos really be favored against anybody? I don’t think so. The Browns are bad, but they should be able to make this horrific contest close. Browns +3.

NY Giants at Dallas (-3), 8:20 p.m. Sunday

It doesn’t get much better than watching Jerry Jones fail year after year. He can’t wait until the uncapped year next season so he can spend as much money as he wants. He’ll still fail. Two punts will hit the scoreboard and the Giants will cover. Giants +3.

Rookies are key to Colts season

NFL teams prefer not to ask a whole lot out of their rookies.

It appears the Colts don’t have a choice.

Rookie cornerback Jerraud Powers was inserted into the starting lineup last Sunday and played well for the Colts.

Four rookies will play important roles for the Colts this season. But if last Sunday is an indication of what’s to come – that might not necessarily be a bad thing.

Rookie Pat McAfee only punted twice in the Colts’ 14-12 victory over the Jaguars, but both were big.

The first pinned the Jaguars inside their 10-yard line late in the third quarter.

The second came when the Colts faced a 4^th-and-2 at the Jaguars’ 44 in the fourth quarter. Colts’ coach Jim Caldwell decided to punt and McAfee delivered a gem that was downed by holder Justin Snow inside the 1-yard line.

With Marlin Jackson still recovering from a torn ACL suffered last season and playing sparingly, rookie cornerback Jerraud Powers started in his NFL debut and didn’t disappoint.

Powers held his own, wasn’t caught out of position, and finished with two passes defended.

With No. 2 wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez out for at least four games with a sprained PCL, rookie wide receiver Austin Collie will have to grow up in a hurry.

Collie only had two catches for 15 yards Sunday, but both were for first downs. Collie did drop a catchable ball Sunday over the middle – going over the middle in the NFL is quite different than doing it in the Mountain West Conference.

Rookie running back Donald Brown will see plenty of field time this season, and got his feet wet Sunday.

Brown had 33 rushing yards and a pair of catches for 16 yards Sunday. And if Joseph Addai has a few more uninspired performances like Sunday’s, Brown will be seeing the field a lot more in the near future.

While these four rookies look promising, Colts general manager Bill Polian’s defensive tackle selections are in serious doubt.

Fourth-round pick Terrance Taylor was cut after failing to record a solo tackle in three preseason games. Second-round pick Fili Moala was beat out by a pair of defensive tackles the Colts acquired through waivers. He didn’t produce in the preseason and was inactive for Sunday’s season opener.

But all in all, after a couple of unmemorable drafts in ’07 and ’08 it appears Polian might have hit the mark again in 2009. Colts’ fans better hope so – they are going to need them.

Sure-fire picks – Week 1

Last season, I showed off my NFL handicapping skills with my weekly sure-fire picks. At season’s end I was 56-77-2. Magnificently putrid.

I had better luck in my newspaper column, where I pick just four games rather than eight. There I went 41-37-1 (9-2-1 in the postseason).

This year will be different. For those of you living in states with legalized gambling, this is your ticket to a work-free life.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-7), 1 p.m. Sunday

If you read my last post you know how I feel about this one. Maurice Jones-Drew will make the middle of the Colts defense look like silly putty. This game comes down to the wire. Jaguars +7.

Dallas (-6) at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m. Sunday

My Bucs’ loving friends back home in Florida are on suicide watch and a once steady franchise is in shambles. I don’t think the Bucs are quite as bad as advertised, but the Cowboys win by at least a touchdown here. Cowboys -6.

Minnesota (-4) at Cleveland, 1 p.m. Sunday

As much as I’d love to see Brett Favre fail miserably, the team around him is just too good. And the Browns are just too awful to rain on his opening-day parade. Vikings -4.

Detroit at New Orleans (-13), 1 p.m. Sunday

Matthew Stafford will be the Lions’ starter for the 2009 season. Apparently they are in no rush to get that elusive victory. The Saints’ offense will run circles around a pathetic Lions’ defense and put up at least five touchdowns. Saints -13.

Miami at Atlanta (-4), 1 p.m. Sunday

Chad noodle-arm Pennington leads the revamped Dolphins into the Georgia Dome. Good luck with that. A raucous crowd will make things hard on the Dolphins’ offense and they will struggle. Falcons -4.

San Francisco at Arizona (-6.5), 4:15 p.m. Sunday

Many are drinking the 49ers Kool-Aid. Not me. As long as Kurt Warner stays upright, the Cardinals will have no problem ruling the NFC West. Cardinals -6.5.

Chicago at Green Bay (-3.5), 8:20 p.m. Sunday

With Favre gone I wish the Packers nothing but success. After Cutler’s antics, he’s joined my list of hated, manipulative quarterbacks which includes John Elway and Eli Manning. Where’s Bubba Franks? Packers -3.5.

San Diego (-9.5) at Oakland, 10:15 p.m. Monday

Everybody is on the Chargers’ bandwagon this season. Well guess what? I’m on the Raiders’ bandwagon and there’s plenty of room here. This is probably a very bad bandwagon to be on. Raiders +9.5.

Jags will test rusty Colts’ D

Few are giving the Jacksonville Jaguars a puncher’s chance in Indianapolis this Sunday, but they should.

Maurice Jones-Drew has feasted on the Colts D throughout his career ... no reason to think Sunday will be any different.

While the preseason means nothing, the Colts’ defense comes into the season with some glaring issues.

Bob Sanders and Kelvin Hayden got no field action in the preseason, while Marlin Jackson, Robert Mathis, Raheem Brock, and Antoine Bethea saw virtually none.

At no point during the preseason were the Colts able to march out a defensive lineup that even resembled their starting 11.

Some defenses could probably get away with that, but not this one.

Not a defense with Bob Sanders on the shelf (surprise, surprise) and both corners — Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden — fighting their way back to health.

Not a defense featuring a pair of starting defensive tackles that were signed off waivers or practice squads – Daniel Muir and Antonio Johnson.

Not a defense with a pair of unproven starting outside linebackers — Tyjuan Hagler and Clint Session — and an aging middle linebacker coming back from a broken leg — Gary Brackett.

Not a defense with a new coordinator whose last stint at the position was in 2006 — Larry Coyer.

The Colts’ defense enters the season with major question marks. And say what you will about the Jaguars, but they know how to run the ball … particularly against the Colts. You can bet they’ll do it early and often on Sunday.

With an offensive line in complete shambles and a running game that struggled (18th in the NFL), the Jaguars still had no trouble pilling up yards on the ground against the Colts last season — in their two matchups the Jaguars ran for 341 yards.

Over the past three seasons, Maurice Jones-Drew has pilled up 571 yards rushing in six meetings against the Colts and averages 6.3 yards per carry (that’s not a misprint).

David Garrard is healthy and finally has a halfway decent wide receiver to throw to in Torry Holt.

The Jaguars have always played the Colts tough and there’s no reason to think Sunday will be any different.

Despite some issues of their own — namely the offensive line — the Colts’ offense will put up points … we know that. But can the defense flip the switch for the regular season? That’s anyone’s guess.