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And there you have it. At one point, the sure-fire picks were on top of the world. After another losing week (this time 3-5) the season total is now just barely hovering over .500 at 52-51-1. Let’s see if they can get back on track.
Seattle at Houston (-6), 1 p.m. Sunday
If the Texans lose this game, Gary Kubiak might as well clean out his office. He might have to regardless.
Do the Texans have any pride? If they do, they’ll win this game. Sure their playoff hopes are out the window, but the only thing worse than the Texans at home (2-4) is the Seahawks on the road (1-5). Texans -6.
New Orleans (-10) at Atlanta, 1 p.m. Sunday
I expect Matt Ryan will miss this game. If he does, the Saints will win by much more than 10 points. After the Saints’ last close call, they beat down the Bucs. They’ll do the same to the Falcons. Saints -10.
Green Bay (-4) at Chicago, 1 p.m.
In the theme of playing with pride, are the Bears really going to let the Packers walk all over them at Soldier Field. I would think they’d at least make a game of it. Bears +4.
Detroit at Baltimore (-13.5), 1 p.m. Sunday
I have no good reason to pick the Lions here except for the fact that I always think the old Daunte Culpepper will re-emerge one of these days. Odds are I’ll still be waiting for that to happen come Monday. Lions +13.5.
St. Louis at Tennessee (-13), 4:05 p.m.
The Rams are a runaway train for the No. 1 pick in the 2010 draft. I doubt they’ll mess that up. If they do, it’s certainly not going to be at Tennessee. Titans -13.
Washington (-1) at Oakland, 4:05 p.m. Sunday
Prior to the season I pegged Oakland as a 7 or 8-win team. Oops. It’s still a possibility, but there’s only one way it can happen. Raiders +1.
San Diego at Dallas (-3), 4:15 p.m. Sunday
Some day you can tell your grandkids you watched Norv Turner match wits with Wade Phillips. Actually, don’t tell them that – they’ll have no idea who you are talking about. This comes down to one team knowing how to win in December, and the other having no clue. Chargers +3.
Arizona (-3.5) at San Francisco, 8:30 p.m. Monday
Remember when the 49ers were 3-1 and the media was all over Mike Singletary like Tiger Woods at a … well, never mind. Those days seem like a distant memory don’t they? Cardinals -3.5.
To enter the team-of-the-decade converstation, Manning and the Colts have to get their hands on another Lombardi Trophy following this season.
With Tom Brady out and no clear frontrunner in the AFC, the door was open for the Colts to make another Super Bowl appearance.
It didn’t happen.
A year later, the Colts have a similar chance.
The AFC is still wide open. The Patriots are struggling, the defending champs are on the brink of elimination, and the Colts are a win away from securing homefield advantage.
The Colts have piled up almost every regular-season accolade imaginable this decade.
With a win over the Broncos Sunday they will set two NFL records — the longest regular-season win streak (22) and the most wins in a decade (114).
The Colts’ nine playoff appearances this decade (including this season) ties an NFL record and they have won their division six times in the 2000s.
But like the 49ers of the 90s — whose win total in a decade (113) is about to be broken — the Colts only have one Super Bowl title to show for it.
This decade the Patriots have three Super Bowl titles and the Steelers have two.
Another Super Bowl victory puts the Colts in the team-of the-decade conversation.
But like any team, the Colts have their share of flaws.
They can’t run the ball and the issue has gotten progressively worse over the years.
In 2004 the Colts’ rushing offense ranked 15th, in ‘05 it was 16th, in ‘06 and ‘07 it was 18th, last season it was 31st, and this year it ranks last.
But wait, there’s hope. Last season, the Cardinals’ rushing attack was ranked dead last and they made it to the Super Bowl.
And the Colts run game has improved recently. Over the past four games the Colts have averaged 92.3 yards rushing and have scored at least one rushing touchdown in each of their past five contests.
Another issue for the Colts is their secondary. The Texans and Patriots shredded the young unit recently and they currently rank 19th in pass defense.
With Marlin Jackson and Bob Sanders out for the season the secondary has held its own, but there is little room for error or injury.
Quick, name Melvin Bullitt or Antoine Bethea’s backup.
As Peyton Manning nears the twilight of his career, he and the Colts have a golden opportunity in front of them. We will soon see what they do with it.
The sure-fire picks have hit rock bottom, going 1-6-1 last week. The season record is barely above water at 49-46-1. The solution is simple – it’s time to start picking winners.
Like Jay Cutler, the sure-fire picks have been so bad it would drive anyone to drink.
Philadelphia (-5.5) at Atlanta, 1 p.m. Sunday
It took a miracle for the Falcons to beat the lowly Buccaneers at home last week. Without Matt Ryan and possibly Michael Turner, they don’t stand a chance this Sunday. Eagles -5.5.
New England (-3.5) at Miami, 1 p.m.
Coming off an embarrassing loss to the Saints, I have no doubt the Patriots will come out ready to play. With a win the Patriots will take back control of the division. I see no way they slip up here. Patriots -3.5.
Houston at Jacksonville (EVEN), 1 p.m.
The Jaguars are the most unpredictable team in the NFL and their 6-5 record is deceiving - they haven’t beaten a team with a winning record yet. The Texans will keep their playoff hopes alive with a big win at Jacksonville. Texans EVEN.
New Orleans (-9.5) at Washington, 1 p.m. Sunday
You know what they say about things that are too good to be true. While the Redskins are playing better, this is a complete mismatch and there’s no reason to think the Saints won’t win this one running away … meaning the Redskins will probably shock the world. I’m still going with New Orleans here. Saints -9.5.
Tampa Bay at Carolina (-5), 1 p.m.
I’m not sure who new Carolina starter Matt Moore is, but I know he’s got to be better than injured Jake Delhomme who has thrown eight TDs to 18 INTs this season. Besides, if the Panthers are smart they’ll only throw about a dozen times in this one … they ran for 267 yards in a 28-21 win over the Bucs earlier this season. Panthers -5.
San Diego (-13.5) at Cleveland, 4:05 p.m.
Quietly, the Chargers are peaking and the Browns are … well, the Browns. Aside from their offensive explosion against the Lions, the Browns rarely score in double digits. They’ll lose big here. Chargers -13.5.
Dallas (-2) at NY Giants, 4:15 p.m. Sunday
After a 5-0 start things have crumbled for the Giants, who need a win to stay in the playoff hunt. The Cowboys are due to lay an egg and doing it on a big stage would be typical. Giants +2.
With their 35-27 come-from-behind victory over the Texans Sunday, the Colts have now won 20 consecutive regular season games – just one from tying the record set by the Patriots a few years ago.
It hasn't been pretty, but the Colts are perfect in 2009.
Winning 20 straight games is a great accomplishment, particularly in the salary-cap era, but even more incredible is how the Colts are doing it.
They have trailed in the fourth quarter in their past five victories – the first NFL team to do so.
In two of their last three games, they trailed by 17 points.
In 13 of the 20 wins during their current streak, the Colts won by eight points or fewer.
In contrast the NFL’s other 11-0 team – the New Orleans Saints – have steamrolled opponents, winning by an average of 17 points per game.
On the surface, the Saints appear the better team. Only twice have they won by less than 10 points – by five over the Rams and by eight over the Falcons.
Meanwhile the Colts have won a handful of games – over the Dolphins, Patriots, and Ravens – that they had no business winning.
Will the Colts’ ability to come from behind and win games they shouldn’t pay dividends in the postseason? Is it best to coast to victories, or fight till the bitter end for them?
It’s hard to say.
The Colts have long been a come-from-behind team, with more than half their games over the past four seasons coming down to the wire.
It paid off in 2006.
After rallying for several victories during the regular season, the Colts pulled off the biggest comeback in AFC Championship game history with a 38-34 victory over the Patriots en route to winning Super Bowl XLI.
The past two postseasons, the Colts late-game savvy hasn’t come through.
In 2007, the Colts playoff hopes were crushed by a second-half rally by the San Diego Chargers with Billy Volek filling in for an injured Philip Rivers.
Last season it was the Chargers again, scoring the game’s final nine points to knock the Colts out of the playoffs in overtime.
More than ever, the Colts have leaned on last-minute heroics to earn their 11-0 record. Whether or not that style of winning will pay off in the postseason will soon be determined.
For the third consecutive week the sure-fire picks tanked, going 3-5. At 48-40, a winning week must come soon.
Raheem Morris is just one piece of the puzzle that has led to the destruction of the Bucs ... but he's a pretty big one.
After firing his offensive coordinator prior to the season, first-year Bucs head coach Raheem Morris has canned defensive coordinator Jim Bates. Now Morris says he will switch the team back to a Cover 2 defense. Good luck with that. Falcons -12.
Washington at Philadelphia (-9), 1 p.m. Sunday
The Eagles are getting close to putting it all together. Why not do it at home against the Redskins? I can’t think of a reason either. Eagles -9.
Seattle (-3) at St. Louis, 1 p.m. Sunday
These two teams are terrible – the Seahawks haven’t won on the road, and the Rams haven’t won at home. With Marc Bulger sidelined and Steven Jackson banged up, the Rams are the more pathetic of the two. Seahawks -3.
Jacksonville at San Francisco (-3.5), 1 p.m. Sunday
I’ve doubted the 49ers from the beginning and that hasn’t changed. Very quietly, the Jaguars have won three straight and are in the thick of the playoff hunt. Jaguars +3.5.
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-14), 1 p.m.
The Bengals are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Raiders and should respond by pummeling the hapless Browns, who are looking to cement themselves as the NFL’s worst team. Bengals -14.
Kansas City (-14) at San Diego, 4:05 p.m. Sunday
The Chiefs have lost by more than 14 points just twice this season and have won two straight. There’s no reason to think they can’t compete with the Chargers. Chiefs +14.
Arizona at Tennessee (-3), 4:15 p.m. Sunday
The Titans are on a roll, but their secondary will struggle against the Cardinals passing attack. Besides, Vince Young is due for a bad game … look for it here. Cardinals +3.
New England at New Orleans (-2), 8:30 p.m. Monday
Look out NFL, the Patriots are clicking again. Will that result in the dethroning of the unbeaten Saints? I’m not sure, but it will come down to the wire. Patriots +2.
Three weeks, three close wins, three straight head coaching blunders by Colts opponents.
John Harbaugh is the most recent coach to present the Colts with a gift with his bad decision down the stretch.
Getting to 10-0 isn’t easy, and a little help along the way never hurt anyone.
On Sunday a timeout/replay challenge mishap by Ravens’ coach John Harbaugh helped clinch a 17-15 win for the Colts.
Harbaugh burned two timeouts in one sequence late in the game. The first timeout – the Ravens’ second – was to stop the clock after Reggie Wayne reached for a first down with 2:19 remaining … no problem there.
But with extra time to view the spot, Harbaugh inexplicably tossed his red flag despite the call clearly being correct. If anything, Wayne’s extension of the ball was a yard beyond the spot.
The challenge was denied and the Ravens’ final timeout was burned.
With the Ravens out of timeouts and trailing 17-15, the Colts ran three run plays and drained the clock to 28 seconds before punting. Baltimore ultimately turned the ball over on the punt return, trying to lateral for extra yards.
Had Harbaugh saved his timeout, the Ravens would’ve had more than a minute remaining when they got the ball back and wouldn’t have resorted to desperate measures. And without the lateral attempt, Baltimore would’ve started at its own 40-yard line – a couple of first downs away from a game-winning field goal try.
The week before, we all know what happened during the Colts 35-34 victory over the Patriots.
Bill Belichick’s decision to go for it on fourth-and-2 blew up in his face. But overlooked was his timeout mismanagement. Much like Harbaugh, Belichick butchered his team’s timeout situation.
Before the infamous fourth-and-2 all even happened, Belichick had blown his team’s final two timeouts on the drive.
This became crucial for two reasons:
1) Without any timeouts the Patriots couldn’t challenge the spot on the fourth-and-2 play … which was undeniably a kind one for the Colts.
2) The Patriots couldn’t stop the clock after Joseph Addai was stuffed on the goal line prior Peyton Manning’s touchdown pass to Wayne. Without a timeout the Patriots were left with 13 seconds to get into position for a game-winning field goal rather than 53 seconds.
Three weeks ago, Texans head coach Gary Kubiak also presented the Colts with a gift. With the Texans driving deep into Colts territory late in the second quarter, Matt Schaub completed a pass to Ryan Moats down to the Colts’ 1-yard line.
Moats fumbled near the sideline and Colts defensive back Jerraud Powers scooped up the ball inbounds, but the referees ruled that Moats was down.
Rather than run a quick play, the Texans let the clock run down to the two-minute warning. With another look, Colts coach Jim Caldwell threw the challenge flag and the result was a Texans’ turnover. The Colts’ took possession at their own 1-yard line – a huge play in a game that ended in a 20-17 Colts victory.
Ultimately, the Colts have earned their 10-0 record. But in this time of giving, a thank-you card to Harbaugh, Belichick, and Kubiak from the Colts would be thoughtful.
Just when Browns fans think it can't get any worse ... they head to Detroit, where they will get beat convincingly.
Cleveland at Detroit (-3.5), 1 p.m. SundayThe Browns come off a short week and have one of the worst offenses in NFL history. The Lions are the best one-win team in the NFL … did I really just go there? Anyway, I like Detroit by double digits here. Lions -3.5.
San Francisco at Green Bay (-6.5), 1 p.m. Sunday
Do the 49ers get points for the number of times the camera captures a candid Mike Singletary moment? If not, I don’t think they’ll score enough of them to win. Packers -6.5.
New Orleans(-11.5) at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m. Sunday
The Buccaneers have now covered twice in a row. Will three times be a charm against the visiting Saints who are fresh off a scare from the Rams? There’s just no way. Saints -11.5.
Atlanta at N.Y. Giants (-7), 1 p.m. Sunday
The Falcons have been hit or miss this season, but seven points seems like a lot here. Despite facing the No. 1 defense in the league in their house, I look for Matt Ryan to have a big game. Falcons +7.
N.Y. Jets @ New England (-10.5), 4:15 p.m. Sunday
The Patriots had the Colts on the ropes and let them go. Hoodie’s ego is bruised. Oh, how I pity the poor Jets. Patriots -10.5.
Cincinnati (-10) at Oakland, 4:15 p.m.
This is too easy. The Bengals are the real deal and they are going to hammer the hapless Raiders. The Oakland franchise needs a stick of dynamite badly. Bengals -10.
Philadelphia (-3) at Chicago, 8:15 p.m. Sunday
Two teams desperate for a win face off in Chicago. It seems like Jay Cutler and the Bears have to put it together at some point before it’s too late. No better time than Sunday night. Bears +3.
Tennessee @ Houston (-4.5), 8:30 p.m. Monday
You knew the Titans weren’t going to be held down forever. With an extra week of preparation and their Week 9 loss to the Colts still fresh in their minds, the Texans will be ready. Texans -4.5.
Early in Peyton Manning’s career, the New England Patriots had a stranglehold on the Colts.
The Patriots beat the Colts six consecutive times, with several of those wins coming in convincing fashion.
Timely turnovers was the key ingredient to the Colts' victory Sunday, but the focus has been on Hoodie.
And who could forget the Colts’ ugly playoff losses in Foxborough following the 2004 and 2005 seasons? In those games, Manning tossed just one touchdown pass to five interceptions as the Colts put up a combined 17 points.
But enough with the past, this series is owned by the Colts of late.
With their miraculous 35-34 victory over the Patriots Sunday the Colts have now defeated the Patriots in five of the last six meetings, including their AFC Championship victory in 2007.
Speaking of Sunday’s victory, isn’t it amazing how the masses get fixated on one play – the infamous Belichick fourth-and-2 call? I’ve yet to hear anyone mention one of the game’s biggest plays – Phillip Wheeler’s strip of Laurence Maroney at the goal line late in the third quarter.
But I digress. The Colts have taken grip of this rivalry lately, but the Patriots still hold the edge.
Since 2000, the Patriots are 8-6 overall against the Colts, and 2-1 in playoff meetings. Fittingly, the winner of those playoff showdowns has gone on to win the Super Bowl each time.
So is it the rivalry of the decade, as NBC told you every 30 seconds Sunday? Sure, why not. No other ones come to mind for me.
Every time the Colts and Patriots face off something is on the line, whether it is homefield advantage or playoff survival.
The last five times these two teams met, the game was decided by one score or less. In each of those contests, the losing team had a chance to win in the game’s final moments.
It seems inevitable these two teams will meet again. The Colts hold a four-game division lead, the Patriots a two-game division lead – and it would be hard to imagine either team not holding on.
A rematch would be interesting.
The Colts’ secondary isn’t going to get much healthier – Kelvin Hayden should at least return – and the Patriots’ passing game isn’t going to get any worse.
Then again, Manning’s young receiving corps should improve by playoff time and Ty Law isn’t walking through that door.
One thing is certain, should there be a Colts/Pats rematch prepare to hear about Belichick’s fourth-down call approximately 1,255 more times.
Yes, the sure-fire picks came back to Earth last week, going 3-5. But the season total is still comfortably above water at 43-29.
And not to complain, but there’s mighty fine line between 3-5 and 5-3. If not for a late garbage-time touchdown from the Chiefs and a pick-6 from Matthew Stafford with seconds remaining, you’d be calling me Nostradamus right about now. Moving on, here’s this week’s picks.
![p1_delhomme2[1]](http://taylormadetirade.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/p1_delhomme21.jpg?w=211&h=300 "p1_delhomme2[1]")
Is there a quarterback's union I'm not aware of? How does this guy still have a job?
Atlanta (-1.5) at Carolina, 1 p.m. Sunday
The Panthers have shown flashes of what could have been this season, but there’s one problem … Jake Delhomme is still quarterback. The Falcons drive a dagger in any hopes the Panthers still have. Falcons -1.5.
New Orleans (-13.5) at St. Louis, 1 p.m. Sunday
Is this a misprint? The Rams defense will have no answer for the Saints, who will put up at least 40 points in this one. Saints -13.5.
Tampa Bay at Miami (-10), 1 p.m. Sunday
Alright Bucs, you and your creamsicle throwbacks snuck up on me last week but it’s not going to happen again. The Dolphins wildcat is going to terrorize the Bucs defense. Dolphins -10.
Denver (-3.5) at Washington, 1 p.m. Sunday
I’ve been going against the Broncos all year long, but I can’t do it here. A dozen bye weeks can’t fix the Redskins and Denver is eager to get back on track. Broncos -3.5.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-7), 1 p.m. Sunday
Is it just me or are those two of the hardest NFL cities to spell? San Francisco has to be right up there. Thank goodness for spell check. Anyway, the Steelers get revenge on the Bengals here. Steelers -7.
Detroit at Minnesota (-16.5), 1 p.m. Sunday
The Favres will completely overlook the Lions and why shouldn’t they? However, that attitude will make for a closer game than they bargained for. Lions +16.5.
Kansas City at Oakland (-2), 4:05 p.m. Sunday
Well, I was officially wrong about the Raiders being decent this year. Dead wrong. The Raiders being favored just doesn’t sit right with me. Chiefs +2.
Seattle at Arizona (-8.5), 4:15 p.m. Sunday
Here’s the thing – the Seahawks struggled at home against Detroit despite Matthew Stafford throwing 14 interceptions. I think they are in some serious trouble at Arizona. Cardinals -8.5.
Entering the 2009 season it seemed fairly clear — Joseph Addai was a dead man walking.
Following an unproductive 2008 season marred by injury, the Colts used a first-round draft pick to select running back Donald Brown.
![joseph-addai[1]](http://taylormadetirade.files.wordpress.com/2009/11/joseph-addai1.jpg?w=206&h=300 "joseph-addai[1]")
Joseph Addai returned to form and led the Colts a victory against the Texans last Sunday.
Many had questioned his effort in 2008, and his lost fumble in the season opener didn’t help public opinion.
Brown’s fresh legs and breakaway ability had fans quickly calling for Addai to take a seat on the bench.
But, with Brown recently sidelined by a shoulder injury, Addai has come on strong. Over the past two weeks he’s tallied 125 yards rushing, 53 receiving, and scored three touchdowns.
Though his mid-season numbers won’t blow anyone away, his play has been solid.
Despite playing behind an offensive line that has proven to be one of the worst in the NFL when it comes to run blocking, Addai has 399 yards rushing for five touchdown and more impressively, 34 receptions for 209 yards and another two touchdowns.
An underrated pass blocker and receiver, Addai has been a key component in the Colts’ No. 4 ranked offense.
Addai’s yards per carry is poor (3.4), but take away Brown’s 45-yard run against a sub-par Rams defense and his average is similar (3.7).
Let’s face it — Walter Payton would struggle to run consistently behind this offensive line.
Brown is set to return soon and it will be interesting to see how the Colts develop a rotation with the two backs. There is no doubt the Colts need them both at their best toward the end of the season.
When a team is 8-0 it’s hard to be overly critical, but the Colts have to get their running game fixed. It ranks 29th in the NFL and the Colts rarely try to run in short-yardage situations, knowing they can’t get a first down on the ground.
For the Colts to come away with wins against a couple of the NFL’s best defenses (New England and Baltimore) these next two weeks, they are going to have to establish a semblance of a running game.
And Addai will have to continue his improved play for that to happen.
