Sure-fire picks – Week 11

Just when Browns fans think it can't get any worse ... they head to Detroit, where they will get beat convincingly.

Week 10 was a complete disaster as the sure-fire picks went 2-6. The season total is now 45-35 and getting dangerously close to the .500 mark. I feel very confident in this week’s picks for whatever that’s worth (not much).

Cleveland at Detroit (-3.5), 1 p.m. SundayThe Browns come off a short week and have one of the worst offenses in NFL history. The Lions are the best one-win team in the NFL … did I really just go there? Anyway, I like Detroit by double digits here. Lions -3.5.

San Francisco at Green Bay (-6.5), 1 p.m. Sunday

Do the 49ers get points for the number of times the camera captures a candid Mike Singletary moment? If not, I don’t think they’ll score enough of them to win. Packers -6.5.

New Orleans(-11.5) at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m. Sunday

The Buccaneers have now covered twice in a row. Will three times be a charm against the visiting Saints who are fresh off a scare from the Rams? There’s just no way. Saints -11.5.

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants (-7), 1 p.m. Sunday

The Falcons have been hit or miss this season, but seven points seems like a lot here. Despite facing the No. 1 defense in the league in their house, I look for Matt Ryan to have a big game. Falcons +7.

N.Y. Jets @ New England (-10.5), 4:15 p.m. Sunday

The Patriots had the Colts on the ropes and let them go. Hoodie’s ego is bruised. Oh, how I pity the poor Jets. Patriots -10.5.

Cincinnati (-10) at Oakland, 4:15 p.m.

This is too easy. The Bengals are the real deal and they are going to hammer the hapless Raiders. The Oakland franchise needs a stick of dynamite badly. Bengals -10.

Philadelphia (-3) at Chicago, 8:15 p.m. Sunday

Two teams desperate for a win face off in Chicago. It seems like Jay Cutler and the Bears have to put it together at some point before it’s too late. No better time than Sunday night. Bears +3.

Tennessee @ Houston (-4.5), 8:30 p.m. Monday

You knew the Titans weren’t going to be held down forever. With an extra week of preparation and their Week 9 loss to the Colts still fresh in their minds, the Texans will be ready. Texans -4.5.

Colts turning tide in Patriots rivalry

Early in Peyton Manning’s career, the New England Patriots had a stranglehold on the Colts.

The Patriots beat the Colts six consecutive times, with several of those wins coming in convincing fashion.

Timely turnovers was the key ingredient to the Colts' victory Sunday, but the focus has been on Hoodie.

An unknown Tom Brady led the Patriots to two regular-season victories over the Colts in 2001 by a combined score of 82-30.

And who could forget the Colts’ ugly playoff losses in Foxborough following the 2004 and 2005 seasons? In those games, Manning tossed just one touchdown pass to five interceptions as the Colts put up a combined 17 points.

But enough with the past, this series is owned by the Colts of late.

With their miraculous 35-34 victory over the Patriots Sunday the Colts have now defeated the Patriots in five of the last six meetings, including their AFC Championship victory in 2007.

Speaking of Sunday’s victory, isn’t it amazing how the masses get fixated on one play – the infamous Belichick fourth-and-2 call? I’ve yet to hear anyone mention one of the game’s biggest plays – Phillip Wheeler’s strip of Laurence Maroney at the goal line late in the third quarter.

But I digress. The Colts have taken grip of this rivalry lately, but the Patriots still hold the edge.

Since 2000, the Patriots are 8-6 overall against the Colts, and 2-1 in playoff meetings. Fittingly, the winner of those playoff showdowns has gone on to win the Super Bowl each time.

So is it the rivalry of the decade, as NBC told you every 30 seconds Sunday? Sure, why not. No other ones come to mind for me.

Every time the Colts and Patriots face off something is on the line, whether it is homefield advantage or playoff survival.

The last five times these two teams met, the game was decided by one score or less. In each of those contests, the losing team had a chance to win in the game’s final moments.

It seems inevitable these two teams will meet again. The Colts hold a four-game division lead, the Patriots a two-game division lead – and it would be hard to imagine either team not holding on.

A rematch would be interesting.

The Colts’ secondary isn’t going to get much healthier – Kelvin Hayden should at least return – and the Patriots’ passing game isn’t going to get any worse.

Then again, Manning’s young receiving corps should improve by playoff time and Ty Law isn’t walking through that door.

One thing is certain, should there be a Colts/Pats rematch prepare to hear about Belichick’s fourth-down call approximately 1,255 more times.

Sure-fire picks – Week 10

Yes, the sure-fire picks came back to Earth last week, going 3-5. But the season total is still comfortably above water at 43-29.

And not to complain, but there’s mighty fine line between 3-5 and 5-3. If not for a late garbage-time touchdown from the Chiefs and a pick-6 from Matthew Stafford with seconds remaining, you’d be calling me Nostradamus right about now. Moving on, here’s this week’s picks.

Is there a quarterback's union I'm not aware of? How does this guy still have a job?

 

Atlanta (-1.5) at Carolina, 1 p.m. Sunday

The Panthers have shown flashes of what could have been this season, but there’s one problem … Jake Delhomme is still quarterback. The Falcons drive a dagger in any hopes the Panthers still have. Falcons -1.5.

New Orleans (-13.5) at St. Louis, 1 p.m. Sunday

Is this a misprint? The Rams defense will have no answer for the Saints, who will put up at least 40 points in this one. Saints -13.5.

Tampa Bay at Miami (-10), 1 p.m. Sunday

Alright Bucs, you and your creamsicle throwbacks snuck up on me last week but it’s not going to happen again. The Dolphins wildcat is going to terrorize the Bucs defense. Dolphins -10.

Denver (-3.5) at Washington, 1 p.m. Sunday

I’ve been going against the Broncos all year long, but I can’t do it here. A dozen bye weeks can’t fix the Redskins and Denver is eager to get back on track. Broncos -3.5.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-7), 1 p.m. Sunday

Is it just me or are those two of the hardest NFL cities to spell? San Francisco has to be right up there. Thank goodness for spell check. Anyway, the Steelers get revenge on the Bengals here. Steelers -7.

Detroit at Minnesota (-16.5), 1 p.m. Sunday

The Favres will completely overlook the Lions and why shouldn’t they? However, that attitude will make for a closer game than they bargained for. Lions +16.5.

Kansas City at Oakland (-2), 4:05 p.m. Sunday

Well, I was officially wrong about the Raiders being decent this year. Dead wrong. The Raiders being favored just doesn’t sit right with me. Chiefs +2.

Seattle at Arizona (-8.5), 4:15 p.m. Sunday

Here’s the thing – the Seahawks struggled at home against Detroit despite Matthew Stafford throwing 14 interceptions. I think they are in some serious trouble at Arizona. Cardinals -8.5.

Addai holding his ground

Entering the 2009 season it seemed fairly clear — Joseph Addai was a dead man walking.

Following an unproductive 2008 season marred by injury, the Colts used a first-round draft pick to select running back Donald Brown.

Joseph Addai returned to form and led the Colts a victory against the Texans last Sunday.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Addai.

Many had questioned his effort in 2008, and his lost fumble in the season opener didn’t help public opinion.

Brown’s fresh legs and breakaway ability had fans quickly calling for Addai to take a seat on the bench.

But, with Brown recently sidelined by a shoulder injury, Addai has come on strong. Over the past two weeks he’s tallied 125 yards rushing, 53 receiving, and scored three touchdowns.

Though his mid-season numbers won’t blow anyone away, his play has been solid.

Despite playing behind an offensive line that has proven to be one of the worst in the NFL when it comes to run blocking, Addai has 399 yards rushing for five touchdown and more impressively, 34 receptions for 209 yards and another two touchdowns.

An underrated pass blocker and receiver, Addai has been a key component in the Colts’ No. 4 ranked offense.

Addai’s yards per carry is poor (3.4), but take away Brown’s 45-yard run against a sub-par Rams defense and his average is similar (3.7).

Let’s face it — Walter Payton would struggle to run consistently behind this offensive line.

Brown is set to return soon and it will be interesting to see how the Colts develop a rotation with the two backs. There is no doubt the Colts need them both at their best toward the end of the season.

When a team is 8-0 it’s hard to be overly critical, but the Colts have to get their running game fixed. It ranks 29th in the NFL and the Colts rarely try to run in short-yardage situations, knowing they can’t get a first down on the ground.

For the Colts to come away with wins against a couple of the NFL’s best defenses (New England and Baltimore) these next two weeks, they are going to have to establish a semblance of a running game.

And Addai will have to continue his improved play for that to happen.

Sure-fire picks – Week 9

Talk about easy money ... this guy is starting for the Bucs on Sunday. Poor soul.

Alright, what’s going on here? After a 7-1 Week 8 the sure-fire picks are 40-24 for the season. Over the past three weeks, the sure-fire picks are 19-5. Let’s keep it rolling.

Green Bay (-10) at Tampa Bay, 1 p.m. Sunday

The Packers gave the Vikings their best shot last Sunday but it wasn’t quite enough. From Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, and a menacing defense to … the Bucs? This is going to be ugly. Packers -10.

Houston at Indianapolis (-9), 1 p.m. Sunday

The Colts’ secondary is missing Kelvin Hayden, Marlin Jackson, and Bob Sanders. The Texans have one of the most potent passing offenses in the NFL. If the Colts pull this one off, it’ll be close. Texans +9.

Washington at Atlanta (-9.5), 1 p.m. Sunday

The Redskins are terrible. The Eagles didn’t play well and beat them handedly in D.C. The Falcons are tough at home and will trounce the hapless Skins. Falcons -9.5.

Kansas City at Jacksonville (-6.5), 1 p.m. Sunday

Try to figure out this Jaguars team, I dare you. They won at Houston by a touchdown and got shutout 41-0 by the Seahawks. After giving the Titans their first win of the season I think the Jags bounce back here. Jaguars -6.5

Miami at New England (-10.5), 1 p.m. Sunday

The Patriots were embarrassed by the wildcat a season ago. The Hoodie won’t allow that to happen again. It will be a long afternoon for Chad Henne. Patriots -10.5.

Detroit at Seattle (-10), 4:05 p.m. Sunday

The Lions should be back to “full strength” with Matthew Stafford, Kevin Smith, and Calvin Johnson all expected to start. The Lions have been fairly competitive against several elite teams this season and the Seahawks are far from elite. Lions +10.

Dallas at Philadelphia (-3), 8:20 p.m. Sunday

The Cowboys can never sustain anything. Just when you think they’re on a roll they lay an egg. Their trip to Philadelphia will be no different. Eagles -3.

Pittsburgh (-3) at Denver, 8:30 p.m. Monday

I didn’t pick against the Broncos last week and look what happened – they lost and didn’t cover the spread … go figure. I don’t know why, but I just can’t get behind this team. The Steelers have had two weeks to prepare for this one … bad news for the Broncos. Steelers -3.

Wayne maintains excellence

The Colts are flying under-the-radar at 7-0, and so is their Pro Bowl wideout Reggie Wayne. 

Reggie Wayne is quietly putting together his best season to date.

Spending most of his career in the shadow of future Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison, Wayne continues to produce without a flashy nickname or any cool endzone antics.

In his ninth NFL season, Wayne hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year.

He has exceeded 75 catches and 1,000 receiving yards in each of his last five seasons.

Wayne does the little things with precision. The three-time Pro Bowler rarely drops the ball or fumbles (his last lost fumble came in 2007) and is underrated as a run blocker.

With the departure of Harrison and the injury to Anthony Gonzalez, defenses have been able to focus on Wayne.

He has responded with his best season to this point. He is on pace for a career high in catches (116), receiving yards (1,574), and touchdown (13).

Wayne – who overcame a groin injury to play last week – has avoided major injuries to this point in his career.

The Colts have Wayne locked up through the 2011 season, meaning he’ll have at minimum two more seasons with Peyton Manning.

If he keeps it up, Wayne will find himself among the top 25 all time in all major receiving categories (receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns) when his contract with the Colts has expired.

And that’s not to say Wayne will stop there. He’ll be 33 heading into the 2012 season and plenty of receivers have proven that when healthy you can still produce well into your 30s – see: Terrell Owens (35), Derrick Mason (34), and Donald Driver (33).

As for his standings this season, Wayne leads in the NFL in receiving yards per game (98.4) and ranks second in receiving yards (689), receptions (51), and touchdowns (6).

As Manning’s undisputed go-to guy, Wayne is the key ingredient to the Colts No. 1 ranked passing offense and their success hinges on him keeping up his All-Pro caliber season.

Sure-fire picks – Week 8

Back-to-back 6-2 weeks have the sure-fire picks sitting at 33-23. Pretty impressive. If I know myself, this is where things go dramatically downhill.

In the battle of the man boobs, Bill Parcells and the Dolphins will trump Rex Ryan and the Jets.

Miami at NY Jets (-3.5), 1 p.m. Sunday

The Dolphins have to be the best two-win team in the NFL. If they could get out of their own way, they’d have victories over the Colts and Saints — arguably the NFL’s top two teams. Dolphins +3.5.

Cleveland at Chicago (-13.5), 1 p.m. Sunday

The Bears were demolished by the Bengals last week and desperately need a win to stay in the NFC playoff hunt. Luckily for them, Eric Mangini and the boys are coming to town. Bears -13.5.

Denver at Baltimore (-3), 1 p.m. Sunday

I’ve been wrong about Denver time and time again, but I just can’t resist. The Ravens finally knock the Broncos off their cloud. Ravens -3.

Houston (-3.5) at Buffalo, 1 p.m. Sunday

The Bills have shockingly won two games in a row. Forget about three. The Texans are on a roll and will make easy work of the Bills and their lethargic offense. Texans -3.5.

Oakland at San Diego (-17), 4:05 p.m. Sunday

You think the Browns are a trainwreck — how about the Raiders? I still have no idea how they beat the Eagles. Jamarcus Russell officially implodes this Sunday. Chargers -17.

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-3), 4:05 p.m. Sunday

The Titans have to win eventually … right? Vince Young gets the start and maybe he can energize this dormant team. Titans -3.

Carolina at Arizona (-10), 4:15 p.m. Sunday

The Panthers have been dreadful this season, but can pull to 3-4 with a victory here. After a terrible start, Jake Delhomme gets back on track and keeps Carolina in this one. Panthers +10.

Atlanta at New Orleans (-10), 8:30 p.m. Monday

Nobody has come within a dozen points of the Saints this season, so why would the visiting Falcons? Good question, but I’ve got a feeling about this one. Falcons +10.

Bigger challenges lie ahead for Colts

Following a nail-biting victory over the Dolphins in Week 2, it seemed the ’09 campaign would be much like last season for the Colts. In 2008, eight of the Colts’ 12victories were decided by seven points or less.

With Sage out of the picture, can the Texans finally get the best of the Colts?

However, that hasn’t been the case.

Despite the “slow” start, the Colts have been mowing down opponents of late. They have defeated their last four opponents by a combined score of 138- 42.

New defensive coordinator Larry Coyer looks like a genius. The Colts are giving up just 12.8 points per game and are currently a top-10 ranked defense — despite playing much of the season with a decimated secondary.

They are energized, blitzing, and getting off the field.

But back to reality Colts’ fans.

In their first six games, the Colts have only faced one team (Arizona) with a winning record. The other five wins came against teams with a combined record of 7-24.

There is a tougher road ahead.

Of the Colts’ next five opponents, none have a losing record.

In fact, only two opponents left on the schedule -Tennessee and Buffalo — have losing records.

One team in particular has its sights set squarely on the Colts. The Texans (4-3) will have two shots to beat the Colts in November — a feat they have accomplished just once in their existence.

After a slow start, the Texans are on a roll and quarterback Matt Schaub has the offense clicking on all cylinders.

The Texans will be the first team with a top-10 offense the Colts have faced this season.

In addition, six of the Colts’ final 10 opponents have an offense ranked in the top half of the league.

Fortunately for the Colts, a split with the Texans all but secures the team’s sixth AFC South crown in seven seasons.

But winning division titles and racking up regular-season victories isn’t enough for a franchise looking to embed itself with the Steelers and Patriots of the NFL world.

Two home games in particular — New England (11/15) and Denver (12/13) — could play a huge role in determining homefield advantage in the AFC. And we all know what happens when the Colts are forced to pack their bags for Foxboro in the dead of winter.

To reach that level, the Colts will need homefield advantage. The road leading to that goal begins Sunday, when the schedule stiffens.

Sure-fire picks – Week 7

The sure-fire picks went 6-2 last week, bringing the season’s record to 27-21. Don’t mind me folks just hitting my stride here.

Last week Hoodie showed mercy on the Titans, pulling Tom Brady early in the second half. And they still beat them 59-0. Good luck Tampa.

New England (-15) vs. Tampa Bay @ London , 1 p.m. Sunday 

In a game that will forever be known as London Massacre, Tom Brady and the Patriots will pick up right where they left off against the Titans – scoring on every drive. Half the crowd will leave at halftime to find some real futbol. Patriots -15.

Indianapolis (-14) at St. Louis, 1 p.m. Sunday

I usually stray away from picking Colts games but c’mon, the Rams? These guys are bad … almost as bad as the Bucs. The Colts are coming off a bye week and will run a clinic on the Rams D. Colts -14.

San Diego (-4.5) at Kansas City, 1 p.m. Sunday

The Chiefs have been scrappy this season, making most every game interesting. But Philip Rivers and a desperate Chargers team will do enough to get out of Arrowhead with a win … and cover. Chargers -4.5

San Francisco at Houston (-3), 1 p.m. Sunday

It seems the Texans are coming into their own – and the 49ers are still flat out overrated. But man, people love them some Mike Singletary. Texans finally get on a roll with a win here. Texans -3.

Buffalo at Carolina (-7), 4:05 p.m. Sunday

Expect one of the most boring games in the history of the NFL. Both teams have an atrocious situation at quarterback. The only question is which wide receiver throws a temper tantrum first – Terrell Owens or Steve Smith? Bills +7.

NY Jets (-6.5) at Oakland, 4:05 p.m. Sunday

You know what, I started this Raiders bandwagon before the season started, right or wrong. And daggonit, I can’t jump off it now. I wish I could. Raiders +6.5.

Arizona at NY Giants (-7), 8:20 p.m. Sunday

The Giants were embarrassed in New Orleans last week and will be angry. That’s bad news for Kurt Warner, who will spend a lot of time on his back. Giants -7.

Philadelphia (-7) at Washington, 8:30 p.m. Monday

So let me get this straight. Owner pressures coach into resigning. Coach refuses. Coach can’t call plays anymore. Guy who ran bingo halls a month ago now runs the offense. And these guys couldn’t score to save their lives before this all happened. Eagles -7.

 

What will the ’09 season do for Manning’s legacy?

There are several reasons the 2009 season could have been disastrous for Peyton Manning.

Manning is on pace to have one of his best seasons ever, but can he come through with a big-time postseason performance?

Marvin Harrison is gone and his replacement – Anthony Gonzalez – went down with a knee injury in Week 1.

Two of Manning’s targets at wide receiver – Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon – had four NFL catches between them prior to the season.

The team’s supposed left tackle of the future – Tony Ugoh – was benched.

The running game is still pathetic – ranked 29th in the NFL and averaging 3.3 yards per carry.

Despite the obstacles, Manning is putting together his best season to date.

He is currently completing 73.5 percent of his passes – his career high for a season is 67.6 percent.

He is on pace to break the NFL record in passing yards for a season (5,264 yards) and has only been sacked twice in five games.

Manning’s success is likely to continue as seven of the Colts’ 11 remaining opponents have pass defenses ranked No. 19 or worse. And let’s face it, the undersized offensive line isn’t going to figure out how to run block overnight, so the Colts will continue to air it out.

Indianapolis will likely finish the 2009 season with at least 10 wins for the 10th time in 11 seasons. They might even notch 12 wins for the seventh consecutive season.

Manning is certainly in the running for his fourth NFL MVP Award, a feat no other athlete has accomplished.

There is no doubt that Manning could retire tomorrow and be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

The greatest ever? Many think he needs another Super Bowl ring to take the arbitrary title, no matter how many regular-season accolades he racks up.

Others believe one is enough.

It could easily be argued that Manning was responsible for several of the Colts’ playoff exits – in his first five playoff elimination games he threw one touchdown to seven interceptions.

Lately, it’s harder to point the finger at Manning. In the Colts’ last three playoff losses, Manning has thrown five touchdowns to two interceptions, averaging 334 passing yards per game.

Whether or not he needs another ring to be considered the greatest of all time, he’ll likely get another shot – maybe this season.

The AFC appears to be wide open and the Colts’ defense has excelled with a decimated secondary – ranked No. 7 overall and allowing 14.2 points per game.